Scottish Parliament 2026
There is no mandate for a second independence referendum.
Verdict
SNP took 58 seats — short of the 65 needed to govern alone, let alone command a referendum mandate.
Without a majority, there is no democratic basis for a second independence referendum.
The numbers
SNP performance against the 2011 mandate baseline and the 2014 referendum.
SNP Seats
58
Majority threshold 65
7 short of majority
SNP Constituency Vote
38.2%
2011 mandate baseline 45.4%
−7.2 pp vs 2011
SNP Regional List Vote
27.2%
2011 mandate baseline 44%
−16.8 pp vs 2011
Projected Yes Share
36.8%
2014 referendum Yes 44.7%
-7.9 pp vs 2014
SNP support fallen since 2011
Each constituency is shaded by the change in SNP constituency-vote share between the 2011 election and this one, mapped onto current boundaries. Red = SNP share decreased · Green = SNP share increased.
SNP performance over time
2011 was the only SP election that produced a single-party majority — and the only one that has ever delivered a referendum.
Seats won
Majority · 65
Constituency vote share
Regional list vote share
Seats won — 2011 vs today
129 MSPs returned in 2011 (the only single-party majority in the Parliament's history). Today's result: 129 MSPs returned across all parties.
2011 actual
- SNP 69
- Labour 37
- Conservative 15
- Lib Dem 5
- Green 2
- Reform UK 0
- Other 1
Single-party majority threshold: 65 — SNP cleared it by 4.
2026 actual
- SNP 58
- Labour 17
- Conservative 12
- Lib Dem 10
- Green 15
- Reform UK 17
- Other 0
No single-party majority returned — same status as 2016 and 2021.
Unionist vs Independence vote — 2011 vs today
Constituency-ballot vote share. Unionist = Reform UK + Conservative + Labour + Lib Dem. Independence = SNP. (Reform did not stand in 2011, so its 2011 contribution is zero.)
2011 actual
Electorate 3,950,626 · Turnout 50.6%
1,064,783 votes
902,915 votes
2026 actual
Electorate 4,320,981 · Turnout 53.2%
1,336,873 votes
877,467 votes
12
years since 2014
It was supposed to be generational.
Alex Salmond himself called the 2014 vote “a once in a generation, perhaps even a once in a lifetime, opportunity for Scotland.” On that basis Westminster signed the Edinburgh Agreement and the rest of the UK accepted the result.
It has been twelve years. Children born around the 2014 referendum will not sit their National 5s for another three. Twelve years is not a generation.
If the referendum were held today
Per-constituency Yes/No predictions from a logit-additive swing model calibrated against the 2014 referendum and the 2016 Scottish Parliament election, applied to the latest constituency-vote projection. See methodology for the model spec.
Projected Yes
36.8%
-7.9 pp vs 2014
Projected No
63.2%
vs the 2014 result
2014 actual
Projected today
Projected Yes share by constituency
No-leaning · Yes-leaning
Scotland has bigger problems to solve.
Every moment spent organising or debating a second referendum is time not spent on the problems facing Scots every day — jobs, drugs, crime, the cost of living.
A second referendum is not a routine policy choice. It is a constitutional question put to every voter — and Scotland has already given its answer.
Read the methodology for sources and limitations.